ALEA IACTA EST
“Then, overtaking his cohorts at the river Rubicon, which was the boundary of his province, he paused for a while, and realising what a step he was taking, he turned to those about him and said: "Even yet we may draw back; but once cross yon little bridge, and the whole issue is with the sword." […] Then Caesar cried: "Take we the course which the signs of the gods and the false dealing of our foes point out. The die is cast.”
-- Suetonius,
The Life of Julius Caesar
***
DANGER FLAGS #6: BRAVADO
The premise of Danger Flags, again, is simple – before someone does something bad, there’s often predictable warning signs.
First, a confession: I almost titled this chapter “Optimism” instead of “Bravado” – after all, think of the meaning of these two words.
Isn’t bravado
merely a particular specialized case of optimism
? It’s optimism blended with… a sense of daring and enterprising, implying a sort of carelessness… but, almost by definition, bravado which is done prudently will not be called bravado afterwards.
But, Danger Flags
is dark enough as it is; I couldn’t bring myself to title this chapter “Optimism,” as though optimism is a dangerous thing.
It is, of course, but I could not bring myself to title this chapter as such.
In any event, when Julius Caesar crosses the Rubicon, Rome is plunged back into Civil War.
Little remarked-upon, almost every key figure involved in the starting of the Caesar/Pompey Civil War died badly within a decade.
Pompey was murdered on the shores of Egypt; Caesar was of course assassinated on the Ides of March; Marcellus was murdered by one of his companions; Cato committed suicide in Africa; Cicero was proscribed by Anthony and Octavian and slain; once overtaken by Octavian, Mark Anthony committed suicide and died in Cleopatra’s arms.
The Roman Republic, which Caesar and Pompey had fought for mastery over, egged on by jealous patricians, was destroyed in the process – mooting their point of honors and glory sought. An unknown figure, Octavian, rose to be Augustus Caesar – but his own children all died before inheriting, the Empire going to his step-son Tiberius, and then led rapidly down into murder and butchery.
In retrospect, we can say the whole thing worked out very badly for everyone involved in starting it.
We can focus on two specific aspects of the Civil War to learn key lessons – first, the errors and blunders on the part of the Optimates that led to Caesar crossing the Rubicon and conquering Rome, and second, the errors Caesar made that led to his assassination on the Ides of March.
***
THE BACKGROUND TO THE RUBICON
“In the event, nothing worked out as Caesar had planned. Instead of coming back home to a second consulship, a Gallic triumph, games honouring his daughter and general acknowledgement as Pompey’s equal as the two foremost men in the Republic, he returned as a rebel. His opponents held very different ideas about the manner in which he should return, and so increasingly did Pompey. There were attempts at negotiation, many offers of compromise, but in the end it proved impossible to find a settlement that all were willing and able to accept. Stubbornness, pride and suspicion on all sides, as well as deep personal enmities in a few cases, all contributed to this impasse.
So did misplaced optimism, leading to the belief that opponents would back down.“
— Adrian Goldsworthy, “
Caesar: Life of a Colossus
”
We see bravado
on full display here; or in Goldsworthy’s language, “misplaced optimism.”
Caesar and Pompey were undoubtedly the two most powerful figures in Rome; previously, they had been close allies along with the third most powerful man in Rome, Crassus.
The Crassus/Caesar/Pompey alliance had led to all of them gathering strength and power tremendously, but it became unstable when Crassus died on a foolish military adventure in the east against the Parthians.
Pompey had married Caesar’s daughter, and the two were very much in love, but tragically, she had died of illness, breaking one of the strongest ties between the two men. Their relationship grew colder.
The issue that led to the Civil War is a bit confusing if you’re not familiar with Roman law and customs. Basically, in that day and age, there was no “state prosecutor” – criminal charges were brought by any member of the leading classes of Rome in the form of a personal lawsuit.
These trials did not benefit from the two thousand years since then of legal precedent, checks and balances, standards of evidence, and what not. They typically came down to bribery and political wrangling; occasionally, justice would be done at them, but they were far more obviously political than procedural; the concept of “fairness under the law” was not really how things worked in those days.
But – any Roman actively serving a military command or elected position was exempt from prosecution. Since his last election as Consul, the highest Roman office in normal times, Caesar had received and been serving a military commission for 10 years in Gaul (modern France) fighting the Gallic Wars, which were a tremendous victory for Rome, albeit at an extremely high price.
Caesar wanted to run for Consul again, and didn’t want to resign his military commission until he’d already been elected – so that he couldn’t be prosecuted in the interim.
At first, this was agreed – it wasn’t uncommon for generals leading troops in the field at the time to be allowed to stand for election – but a variety of rivals of Caesar had started to hate him, and then announced he would have to disband his army and enter Rome unarmed as a private citizen to stand for election.
The issue was, Caesar was certain to be prosecuted immediately on doing so. The only reason it hadn’t already happened was that Caesar was surrounded by one of the two largest Roman armies of the day in Gaul.
Adding to the menace and high stakes, in the decades before, multiple members of Julius Caesar’s party had been murdered while under nominal arrest; Caesar believed, no doubt correctly, that he would be killed if he entered Rome as a private citizen.
Complicating matters, Caesar had already been promised legal immunity until the election, and it was guaranteed by one of the most powerful offices of Rome, the tribune
– a tribune under normal circumstances couldn’t make laws, but could veto any law, and in extraordinary circumstances, could call for assemblies of the people independent of the Senate to pass laws.
Caesar was wildly popular among the tribunes, who were firmly in his camp – they were directly elected by Rome’s lower classes, who saw Caesar as their champion.
Things started getting rough when Roman senators and patricians started ignoring the law and the tribunes, in at least a breach of tradition if not doing something outright illegal.
Eventually though, seeing the pressure build, Caesar agreed to relinquish almost all of his armies except a token force until the election. Goldsworthy –
“In private, Caesar’s tone was more conciliatory and he seems to have written or sent representatives to many leading figures including Cato. He offered to give up Transalpine Gaul and all save two of his legions, so long as he was permitted to retain the rest of his command and make use of the privilege granted to him by the tribunes in 52 BC. This would have balanced the forces under Pompey’s command in Italy but seriously impeded his capacity to fight an aggressive war. Cicero became involved in the negotiations, for he believed everything should be done to prevent conflict and felt that the overwhelming majority of senators agreed with him. He spoke to Caesar’s opponents and friends, and the latter agreed to a further concession, allowing him to keep just Cisalpine Gaul and a single legion. It was still not enough. Cato declared that he could not agree to anything presented in private rather than before the whole Senate, but ultimately neither he nor any of his closest allies were willing to accept anything that would allow Caesar an unhindered path to his second consulship.”
***
BUT NEGOTIATIONS BREAK DOWN
Goldsworthy –
“Following one of the Senate’s meetings, Pompey summoned all of the senators to his house outside the city’s boundary, seeking to reassure them of his steadfast support and willingness to fight if necessary. Caesar’s father-in-law Piso asked that he and one of the praetors be permitted six days to travel up to Cisalpine Gaul and talk directly to Caesar before the Senate did anything else. Other voices suggested an even larger deputation. Lentulus, Cato and Metellus Scipio all spoke against this, and these ideas went no further. Instead, on 7 January 49 BC the Senate passed the senatus consultum ultimum, calling on ‘the consuls, praetors and tribunes, and all the proconsuls near the city to ensure that the Republic comes to no harm’. There was no specific mention of Caesar – whereas the reference to proconsuls was obviously intended to place Pompey at the centre of things – but its target was obvious to all. Caesar claimed that Lentulus, Pompey, Cato and Scipio, along with many of his other opponents, were now all determined on war.”
Thus, Caesar's compromise was rejected.
Shortly afterwards, the Senate suspended normal law and entered into a state emergency – meaning, the tribune veto could not be used.
This was questionable
at best, legally speaking, since Rome was not actually fighting a real emergency, but rather, one faction was trying to stop the other faction (Caesar’s) from standing for election in a way that previously had been possible.
Anthony and Cassius were warned by a senior senator that they weren’t safe in the city, and snuck out dressed as slaves to join Caesar’s camp. He then marched on Rome, stopping and hesitating at the boundary of the city – the Rubicon River. To cross it meant he and his soldiers were outlaws with an automatic death sentence upon them.
"Even yet we may draw back; but once cross yon little bridge, and the whole issue is with the sword."
And after reflection, he crosses the little muddy stream – and so the die is cast.
***
BRAVADO: ROME FALLS QUICKLY
Caesar crossed the Rubicon with one legion, and Rome fell into disarray. Pompey fled east, and the Optimate party that had ruled Rome also quickly fled on Caesar’s arrival.
Caesar left Mark Anthony in control of Rome, and marched rapidly for Spain which was where most of Pompey’s troops were stationed, conquering that area in less than a month, and then marching east to face Pompey.
The speed of it all greatly surprised the Optimate party, who fell into disarray – many of their leading members were defeated in cleanup actions over the next 1-2 years. Some committed suicide and Pompey was famously murdered in Egypt by a local governor who wanted to win favor with Caesar, but the majority of Caesar’s defeated enemies were pardoned – an important point we’ll come back to in a moment.
This brings us to our first Danger Flag
we need to note.
Caesar’s enemies had acted at least questionably
in legal terms, probably illegally to some extent. And yet, they failed to prepare that Caesar would come further over the top and invade.
To be sure, Caesar didn’t want civil war – you can see it from the repeated attempts to negotiate and make concessions that Caesar sent via letter and messengers to Rome – but shockingly, the Optimates were completely unprepared for Caesar to march on Rome after they declared a state of emergency.
This is bravado
at its finest; or, more darkly, optimism.
***
BRAVADO AS A DANGER FLAG
Where does bravado come from?
In this case, we see the Optimate party stuck in their own point of view
– and refusing to see Caesar’s.
From their perspective, their legal maneuvers might have been questionable
, but they did not see that Caesar would see them as outright illegal
– and act accordingly.
Once again, then, we must danger-flag people who only see their own point of view.
This leads easily to underestimating and failing to calculate what bad things could happen.
Relatedly, and just as dangerous, is seeing only upside and not downside.
Clearly, the party opposed to Caesar did not think he would cross the Rubicon with his soldiers – or else, obviously, they would have been better prepared.
But why wouldn’t he? How could they not see it?
Caesar's life was at stake; all knew it. The Optimates had countermanded past legitimate legal agreements and declared a very questionable state of emergency for political reasons, violating the sanctity of the tribunes. Caesar considered – and many historians are sympathetic to his point of view – that they started the Civil War by doing this.
***
THE PATH TO THE IDES OF MARCH
Alas, we know how Caesar’s story ends.
The Civil War had broken out in January of 49 BC. Caesar had both conquered Rome and defeated Pompey by July of 48 BC, and was named to the emergency office of Dictator
.
Showing wise restraint, Caesar resigned the office after only 11 days and being elected to consul, leading Rome back to a more normal state of affairs. At the close of his consulship, he was elected dictator again – for one year – and used his battle-hardened troops to both mop up some Roman problems in Pontus very quickly (“Veni, Vedi, Vici” – “I came, I saw, I conquered” – came from defeating Pontus so quickly) – and then he mopped up resistance to him among Optimate loyalists in Africa, with Cato committing suicide.
Returning to Rome in 46 BC, he was named dictator for 10 years, and – in hindsight, foolishly – was named “dictator for life” one month before his assassination.
***
CAESAR’S MERCY
It hasn’t been remarked upon enough in popular history that Caesar had defeated both of the organizers of his assassination on the battlefield, and pardoned them.
Caesar had famously said –
“Let us see if in this way we can willingly win the support of all and gain a permanent victory, since through their cruelty others have been unable to escape hatred or make their victory lasting – save for Lucius Sulla, and I do not intend to imitate him. This is a new way of conquest, we grow strong through pity and generosity.
”
The Sulla he referred to was the winner of the last round of Roman Civil Wars, when Caesar was only a child – Sulla had put to death everyone who opposed him from his adversary’s party.
Caesar didn’t want to do that – he both deeply wanted to be loved and respected by people, and also foolishly believed that if he was a good person, he would be safe and “escape hatred” – a “new way of conquest, growing strong through pity and generosity.”
Wikipedia: Marcus Junius Brutus
–
“When Caesar's Civil War broke out in 49 BC between Pompey and Caesar, Brutus followed his old enemy and the present leader of the Optimates, Pompey. When the Battle of Pharsalus began on August 9, Caesar ordered his officers to take Brutus prisoner if he gave himself up voluntarily, but to leave him alone and do him no harm if he persisted in fighting against capture. […]
After the defeat of the Optimates at the Battle of Pharsalus, Brutus surrendered and wrote to Caesar with apologies. Caesar immediately forgave him.
Caesar then accepted him into his inner circle and made him governor of Gaul when he left for Africa in pursuit of Cato and Metellus Scipio. In 45 BC, Caesar nominated Brutus to serve as urban praetor for the following year.”
Wikipedia: Cassius Longinus
–
“Cassius returned to Rome in 50 BC, when civil war was about to break out between Julius Caesar and Pompey. Cassius was elected tribune of the Plebs for 49 BC, and threw in his lot with the Optimates […] News of Pompey's defeat at the Battle of Pharsalus caused Cassius to head for the Hellespont, with hopes of allying with the king of Pontus, Pharnaces II.
Cassius was overtaken by Caesar en route, and was forced to surrender unconditionally. Caesar made Cassius a legate, employing him in the Alexandrian War against the very same Pharnaces whom Cassius had hoped to join after Pompey's defeat at Pharsalus.
However, Cassius refused to join in the fight against Cato and Scipio in Africa, choosing instead to retire to Rome.”
Brutus and Cassius, of course, were the ringleaders of the plot to assassinate Caesar – and they did so.
***
OPTIMISM AND BRAVADO
On the Ides of March, a group of 60 senators gathered around Caesar to give him a petition. When Caesar waved them away, Lucius Cimber grabbed him by the toga. Caesar yelled, “Why, this is violence!”
Drawing daggers hidden beneath their togas, the senators stabbed him repeatedly. When he saw Brutus among the conspirators, Caesar is said to have lamented: “You too, my child?”
And so, Caesar died on the Ides of March.
We see once again a mix of optimism and bravado on the part of Caesar – optimism, in thinking that long-term enemies would be reconciled with mercy and favor, combined with bravado in having himself named dictator for life
– while not having adequate security around himself at all times.
Caesar seems like he was unable to comprehend that the Roman Senate might avenge themselves on him and murder him – after all, he believed he was doing well in the Roman service, leading to a new era of peace and prosperity. By most accounts, he was indeed governing well – but once again, we see the mix of optimism
and seeing things from his point of view
and considering upside without considering downside
and failing to take appropriate precautions.
***
GUIDANCE
There were many events that led to the disastrous Civil War, but there’s no doubt that had Piso – Caesar’s father in law – been able to send a diplomatic delegation to negotiate with Caesar, it all could have been avoided.
In any large-scale faction, there are always people who are more stubborn and intractable than others.
These people you need to be very wary of. In times of crisis, it’s common for the loudest voices to hold the most sway – you should be very wary of those who refuse to compromise because they believe they cannot lose
.
Likewise, people who consider only upside and not downside
are very dangerous – Cato’s actions led to his own death, but also the downfall of most of his supporters, and ironically, the complete destruction of the old Roman Republic that he loved so dearly.
On Caesar’s side, he somewhat foolishly believed that a policy of mercy and generosity would compensate for him seeming to master and dominate the Roman scene – the hatred of his enemies which started the Civil War was due to Caesar's preeminence and seeming dominance over the old Roman aristocracy, and Caesar never considered that that hatred would still simmer despite treating old enemy partisans in a friendly and merciful way.
Caesar had at least three paths open to him to avoid assassination – he could have relentlessly exiled or prosecuted known enemies of his, he could have resigned his honors and withdrew into private life with dignity, or he could have been exceedingly careful with his security and kept a bodyguard amongst himself at all times. Any of these three would likely have prevented his assassination.
But he did not do so because he was blinded, to some extent, by his own hope and optimism. He wanted to believe he lived in a world where “pity and generosity” would reconcile old foes, not recognizing that a lack of pity and generosity were not the problem.
From the perspective of his enemies, the problem of Caesar was his preeminence and dominance – by continuing to extend both of those while leaving those enemies intact, his life was always at risk.
He didn’t see this – apparently couldn’t see this – because of his optimism.
If you spot this class of error in yourself, it seems it’s not corrected through any particular type of training, but more through careful thought and reasoning periodically.
There is the way you want the world to be
, but that is not necessarily the way the world is.
This type of thing must be constantly thought about. Two very simple questions go a long way towards catching this error –
“What if I’m wrong? What am I missing?”
Shakespeare took a little poetic license when he made Caesar’s final words in the play, “Et tu, Brute? Then fall, Caesar.”
And while Julius Caesar likely didn’t say that exactly, the spirit and sentiment is certainly correct.
“How can this be happening? Mercy and generosity is not enough? Then fall, Caesar.”
Bravado is certainly a Danger Flag to be watched carefully; and perhaps optimism too.
Again –
“What if I’m wrong? What am I missing?”