U PSTREAM E FFECTS #1: U PSTREAM E FFECTS

A FROZEN MOMENT UPON A FROZEN PLANE

Simo Hayha exhales, his breath showing in the cold air. He shifts his posture, placing as much of his weight as he can against the hard tissue of his body. The small muscles twitch; bone does not twitch.
 
He looks through the iron sights of his Model 28-30 rifle, closes his left eye, and then re-opens it for depth perception. The Soviet officer is perfectly in the rifle’s trajectory.
 
The marksmanship instructors always said that the best shot is the one that surprises you. You must pull the trigger so slowly it’s almost a surprise when the gun flares to life. Simo applies gentle pressure, unnoticeably tensing the pad of index finger on the trigger, touching it as if he were carefully applying medicine to a young child’s gums, a child that had been crying from new teeth coming in.
 
The loud crack of the rifle flaring to life shocks Simo, he’s surprised and flinches, but the flinch doesn’t matter – the lead slug has had its gunpowder activated and has already left the rifled barrel.
 
The bullet’s trajectory is pinpoint-perfect. In milli-seconds, it will strike the invading officer in his breast, near his heart, severing flesh and tendon. The young Russian will crumple sideways into the snow, immediately enter shock, and be on the brink of death before his comrades reach him.
 
But, wait!
 
The bullet has not yet struck the Soviet; freeze this landscape in your mind. Simo Hayha is mid-flinch at the surprise of the rifle roaring to life; the young officer is milling about on the cold land, obvious to the fact that his life is nearing conclusion; the bullet hangs in mid-air, its trajectory set; this scene has almost entirely played out, but not yet ; it’s not over yet, we’re at a moment frozen in time.

***

WHAT COULD OUR YOUNG RUSSIAN DO?

Mere minutes hence, our young Russian officer will be dead and Simo will retreat to safe ground. The Soviets will call in artillery and patrols, trying to catch this specter of death that preys upon them.
 
But never mind the Russians and the Finns, never mind the geopolitics; never mind the Nazis to the South; never mind Red Army’s mass mobilization; never mind Josef Stalin in the Kremlin drawing up his warplans; never mind the Finnish resistance to Soviet domination; never mind all of that.
 
Think instead of our young Russian, standing there, oblivious to this piece of metal mid-air towards his breast.
 
Here is a question for you. In milli-seconds, this young Russian officer will be struck. Almost immediately, he will crumble to the ground. In minutes, he will die on the frozen Finnish snow.
 
Here is the question: is there anything this young Russian can do now, at this moment frozen in time, to avert this catastrophe about to befall him?
 
What could our young Russian do?
 
***
 
… OR THE BODY’S SELF-PURGING MECHANISM BEING ACTIVATED
 
Let us lower the stakes; let us step back from the life and death, good and evil, struggle and conflict. Let’s take a scene that is much more common and much less leveraged.
 
Let us transport ourselves, mentally, from the harrowing cold of the Winter War to a pleasant warm late-summer’s eve on an American college campus.
 
This is a scene that has played out, ad infinitum, everywhere that alcohol is plentiful.
 
There is a young college man, unaccustomed to drinking much, who is drinking much.
 
As he drinks with his newfound collegiate companions, he grows lighter and more pleasant, then more blustery. “Yeah man, let’s slam those brews! Yeah bro!” Something along those lines; you know this scene well enough, even if you’ve never witnessed it directly.
 
The young man, an incoming Freshman in his first year of college, has never drank this hard. Of course, he doesn’t know his limits – how would he?
 
He is now over a dozen drinks in a short period of time; they are drinking the cheapest and worst of the drinks, low-grade beers and hard liquors. He pounds a can of nasty cheap stuff – “Yeah bro!” – does a shot – “Yeah bro!” – pounds another can – “Yeah bro!” – you get the idea.
 
Then, all of a sudden, the revelry reels and spins, the room turns over and over.
 
He tries to say, “What’s happening? I don’t feel so –“ but the words come out as a gurgling splutter, no bravado, no clarity.
 
Never fear; this young man will be fine in no time flat. He is young and healthy, and won’t have much memory of this night. His head and guts will ache in the morning, but he’ll be fine and go on to have a fine career. He is having his brush with exceeding his limits in revelry, but no harm will be done.
 
Where were we? Oh, yes, he’s gurgling away. “I don’t feel so –“ the words don’t come out, rather a stream of vomit ejects from his lips forwards.
 
“Whoa!” one of the slightly older young men says, jumping aside, and laughing.
 
The incoming Freshman tries to bend over, but half-collapses to his knees, retching forth the last few brews and shots into an oddly colorful pool on the concrete basement floor of the fraternity house.
 
He retches and the pool grows, little chunks of a past meal mixing with the still-undigested liquor.
 
One of the more astute brothers tries to drag him into a bathroom to stop the mess from spreading. Bent mostly over the toilet, but wobbling incoherently in a few different directions, at least half the puke winds up in the toilet bowl.
 
And then, the young Freshman barely gets his hands up in time to avert cracking his head on the porcelain as he crumples into darkness on the bathroom floor.
 
Another question, then: after pounding that 15th drink of the night, the one that almost immediately failed to go down and instead triggered this cacophony – was there anything our young American friend could have done, after the last drink was drank, to not throw up and black out?
 
***
 
OUR INVESTIGATION INTO AGENCY AND UPSTREAM EFFECTS
 
Let’s step back, away from histories and hypotheticals, into the present day. 

What are we doing here?
 
I’m writing; you’re reading; we’re joined together, however briefly, for a meeting of the minds across time and space. I’m writing from Beijing, passing through en route to Shanghai with that ever-so noble companion of mine, Greg Nance, who I’m so honored to work so closely with.
 
You’re reading, no doubt, sometime in the future; I’m doing something else, while you’re processing these letters on the page into thoughts, crystallizing them into concepts, accepting or rejecting them based on if they make sense to you or not, and accordingly, perhaps having your perception of the world change.

What are we doing here?

Our first section is on UPSTREAM EFFECTS; I believe it is perhaps the most key factor in how much agency and control you have over the world.

The writing is for disciplined, proactive, achievement-oriented, analytical, service-minded people. It won’t be for everyone. Probably most of the readers who join us will either rank INTJ or ENTJ on the Myers-Briggs scale.
 
Unlike most hyper-logical and hyper-analytical writing, though, I want to try to capture and really elevate beyond that – I want to capture that poetic tone, that haunting of the mind, visions and visages of greatness and tragedy laid bare. That Paradise Lost, the depths of misery and heights of loftiness that makes us human; that which sprang forth from the mind of Dante in his Divine Comedy; that Eiji Yoshikawa; that “once more into the breach, dear friends!”; that “…and on the pedestal, these words appeared…”, that “the spirit of god lives in us!” – not mere intellect, no, pure intellect, yes, but no, more than that – that which animates our soul, burns metaphors and virtues deep into us; that Cicero, Cato, Thucydides, Xenophon… and so the die is cast…

… something both special and actionable. Something you can do something with, waypoints amidst our building and expansion. The path to achievement is often lonely; and yet, it’s been walked by so many before us. Can we not invoke their memories, and have them walk alongside us in thought?

***
 
THE RIVER OF TIME, RUNNING EVER FORWARDS

“Time is like a river that will take you forward into encounters with reality that will require you to make decisions. You can’t stop the movement down this river, and you can’t avoid the encounters. You can only approach these encounters in the best way possible.” – Ray Dalio,  Principles
 
Are you American? I’m American; I was born in 1985 in Massachusetts.

In case you’re not American, let’s try to explain being American in this era.
 
There is still a “can-do,” “mind over matter,” “anything is possible” type feel that pervades and animates most of the young people in the American Republic. Sure, some fatalism is kicking in; we have no real rival to true superpower status around the world; it’s perhaps making us lazy and maybe we’re losing our edge a bit; and yet, most young Americans these days believe they can make themselves into whatever they want.

This is an immensely powerful viewpoint; it means young people in the American Republic constantly try to turn the world upside down. Sometimes they fail, often they fail, but often enough they succeed. The result is a string of invention, innovation, re-invention, and changing things.
 
I’m an amateur historian; I try to understand other times and places. This American view is a brilliant one and a rare one. If you’re not American; if you’re from somewhere that thinks very differently, you might have different views on things.
 
For most of history, people believed to some extent that their destinies were set by their birth.
 
Americans, by and large, do not believe this.
 
***
 
THE RIVER OF TIME, FROZEN IN A MOMENT
 
Were you American in this era, you’d likely believe that you could constantly re-invent and re-imagine yourself, using your willpower and dynamism to do whatever you wanted.
 
This is great – this is fantastic – this is powerful – and yet, from time to time, it’s a little dangerous.
 
This can be seen by freezing time in a moment.
 
After the crack of Simo Hayha’s gunshot during the Winter War, did our young Russian officer have any chance to live?
 
Here is my answer: no, he is already dead. He doesn’t know the shot has been fired; even if he did, he is not fast enough to dodge a bullet. Simo Hayha aimed true; the young officer’s life was set to expire – but he didn’t know it.
 
Likewise, is any “mind over matter” possible once your body’s homeostatic processes violently kick-in?
 
The right answer is, probably, no . After that 15th drink limit was hit, our young hypothetical Freshman was set to vomit and pass out. There was not much else he could have done, at that point.
 
***
 
WHEN AGENCY DIMS
 
I think constantly about “agency” – how much choice and control do we have our lives?
 
The answer is “a lot,” certainly it’s a lot – but on what timeframe?
 
If a lead bullet is mid-air towards striking your breast, can anything be done?
 
At this point, perhaps not! Too late. The game is over.
 
After the 15th drink, your ability to stand up – to even remain conscious – might have been entirely forfeited.
 
At this point, your agency is close to zero – circumstances are now acting upon you; you’re not acting upon them.
 
***
 
BRIGHTENING AND CLAIMING AGENCY: UPSTREAM EFFECTS
 
In early 2010, I began a series of small experiments and attempts to improve my life via tracking and paying attention to how much work I did, how I spent my money, how I spent my time, and so on.
 
Gradually, this grew into some repeatable systems and templates for gathering more control of my day, week, month, year, and life.
 
Eventually, I realized that the day-by-day control I had over my life is much smaller than I thought it was.
 
To a great extent, whatever success I had on a given day would be a result of the preceding days and weeks.
 
I now track the following questions on a little spreadsheet every morning –
 
“Did I adhere to set wake-time?”
“Did I wake 3+ hours before first appointments?”
“Is today clear/known?”
“Is health high, moderate, low?”
 
And then, in the evening, I track whether I took the following actions –
 
“Review Day”
“Plan Tomorrow”
“Set Wake Time”
“Sleep Well”
 
I noticed, after tracking these for many weeks, that if I slept poorly 3+ nights in a row, I would start to make progressively worse decisions and do much worse work.
 
It didn’t matter how much I wanted to do great work, or how I motivated I was, chronically-underslept-me was much less effective.
 
Likewise, if I didn’t plan the next day the night before, I meandered and wasted the day – often doing things of middling value instead of important things.
 
Finally, and I only realized this somewhat recently, if I didn’t wake up at least 3 hours before my first appointment, I had a lot less likelihood of doing any deep and significant work. Needing to scurry around right away – to get on a call, to leave the house to go to an appointment, to head to the airport to fly, or whatever else – all of these made me far less likely to be productive.
 
***
 
MIND OVER MATTER?
 
I fought this phenomenon repeatedly. I didn’t like it. I said, “I should be able to willpower myself to success. So what if I’m tired and I start the day scattered? I should gather myself and work hard and work well anyways.”
 
And yet – there it was, the results undeniable. Applying this “mind over matter” philosophy helped , sure, and yet I still did better and more work, and was happier in the process, when I planned the next day, slept well, and could start the morning slowly and do good work without having to rush.
 
Saying “forget the external factors, I’ll make it work anyways” didn’t make much of a difference. When I applied force of will to push for great work even when compromised, I did more great work – but remember, I also could apply force of will when fully awake, well-planned, and not scattered. Obviously, on those days, I averaged more production.
 
***
 
ON UPSTREAM EFFECTS RULING OUR LIVES
 
My logs on production told a clear story – upstream effects, by and large, ruled my life.
 
This seems to hold true in business, as well. I’ve often consulted for organizations looking to grow their sales. If they start implementing best practices now, this week, their sales will start to improve… but largely, they’ll start to improve next week, the week after, and so on.
 
If you’re in a business with a complex sales cycle that takes multiple weeks to close a deal, perfect play this week means more sales in subsequent weeks – but not necessarily right away.
 
And yet, I’ve seen so many otherwise very talented executives fail to see how a large amount of deals and revenue coming in now were attributable to last month’s campaigns, who are trying to whip their people into getting more sales this week – despite a lack of a sales pipeline, qualified leads, appropriately generating referrals immediately after successful delivery, and all those sorts of best practices.
 
I’ve seen many very talented and creative people who fail to observe what makes them perform at their best – and so they simply seem to “wind up stuck” at times; they haven’t consciously worked to put themselves in the positions where they consistently succeed.

They haven’t investigated what works for them and what doesn’t work for them; and haven’t sought to create the conditions that lead to production. They wait for inspiration – which, unsurprisingly, often comes when the conditions are correct.
 
***
 
ON GATHERING CONTROL OF THE UPSTREAM EFFECTS
 
We’ll be covering –
 
-- Sleep, Mood, Athletics, Biochemistry
-- Habits, Entrainment, Muscle Memory, Defaults
-- Firebreaks, Rapid Repairs, Reflective Control
-- Macro and Micro Upstream
-- Adherence Rate, Training, Patience
-- Replicating Your Own Successes and Failures
-- Operationalization and Consistency
 
***
 
STACKING THE DECK, PILOTING THE RIVER OF TIME
 
We started with two stark examples of upstream effects – an invading Soviet officer who is already dead, but doesn’t know it; and a kid drinking too heavily who has already crossed his limit, and will now be sick with no choice in the matter.
 
It’s true that negative items filter into our lives, both through our own actions and through random chance.
 
But likewise, it’s possible to seed the future with amazing gains coming down the river towards you. Training yourself, making connections with great people, discovering the key principles of the universe – these things mean that life’s river starts flowing more opportunities to you, and that you’re more prepared as they surface in your life.
 
I’ve already mentioned briefly one set of small actions I take to make upstream effects work for me – review every day at the end of it, plan the next day the night before, sleep well, and wake 3+ hours before my first appointment.
 
There’s nearly an infinite number of things we can do with our time, and I know that if I’m exhausted or scattered, I’m unlikely to make great choices. So I try to stack the deck every evening to have a great next morning. This is a small example – I attribute much of tomorrow’s production to having a good evening the night before.
 
We’ll get much more tactical and operational in the coming chapters, looking at this from all sorts of angles and ways to improve, but maybe this is a small way to start improving? Here is a good set of brief questions to ask in the evening to give yourself a fantastic chance for tomorrow –
 
What went right today?
What would I do differently?
What environmental things affected me?
What should I start working on immediately tomorrow morning?
Tomorrow’s wake time:
 
***
 
SELF-CONTROL AND FREEDOM APPS
 
On the technical side of the equation, there are two apps to consider if using a Mac.
 
Freedom blocks the internet entirely.
 
Self-Control blocks a specific blacklist of websites.
 
I’ve found I often habitually do something online that’s unhelpful to me. If I’ve been spending a lot of time on Hacker News, I might start reflectively typing in ‘news.ycom …” to start the day. How many people type “fac” into their browser and hit enter, having it autocomplete to Facebook?
 
If you’re impulsive online to start the day – and there’s really no shame to that, as we’ll talk about in our future entry on habits and entrainment  -- then blocking the internet entirely with Freedom or blocking a specific website with Self-Control.
 
Self-Control is free at:
https://selfcontrolapp.com/
 
Freedom costs $10 at:
https://macfreedom.com/
 
Both are highly recommended.
 
***

KEY TAKEAWAY

The first and largest takeaway I'd like you to get:

You have a lot less moment-by-moment control than you'd want, and than most people believe. You win greater levels of control by taking action and setting up your life now  so that your life runs better in the future. 

Just realizing this can help overcome bad feelings or helplessness: in the moment, you can only do so much. If you're on your 14th drink, or if you're an invading Russian with an elite Finnish sniper's gun trained on you, there's not much more to be done in that moment: your agency is near zero.

But you gain that agency by doing things right now, upstream, so that things run better downstream.